1.00000000 0.2 FinSys 0.8 0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 Coal Oil 0.8 0.8 0 0 0.2 0.2 0.5 Landmines 0.5 0 0.2 Oil 0.8 0 0.2 0.4 CleanAir CleanWater CleanLand CleanOcean CommSector Disasters 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 CleanEnvironment 0.8 0 0.2 EnergyResources Minerals NaturalBeauty 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 0.2 Resources 0.8 0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Coal Gas Other Oil 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 0 0.2 Oil ElectricalE ForeignInvest EnergyResources 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 Television Radio Newspaper 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 0.2 0.2 Telephone Media Internet ForeignInvest Disasters 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 -0.67 0 -0.74 0 0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TeleInfra Oil Roads Railroads Airline Disasters 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 0 -0.64 0 -0.7000000000000001 0 0.2 0.2 0.2 Energy 1 0 0 TeleInfra 1 0 0 TraspInfra 1 0 0 ArableLand WaterA FinSys Livestock Fisheries CleanEnvironment GhostEnergy GhostTeleInfra GhostTranspInfra 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 -0.77 -0.64 0 -0.61 -0.8 0 0 0 0 0.05 0.2 Expatriates 0.8 0 0.2 AgrSysProd 1 0 0.2 0.5 MarketsRestored FinSys CommSector ForeignInvest PropertyR Disasters Resources GhostAgrSysProd ForeignDebt 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0 -0.84 -0.64 -0.54 0 0 0 0 0 0.08 GhostAgrSysProd 0.8 0 0.2 0.2 WaterA 0.8 0 0.2 0.36 0.49 0.36 Food DWater AccessMedicines MedicalInfra MedicalPersonnel 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 -0.67 -0.64 0 -0.38 0.11 0.2 0.2 EconSound 1 0 0.23 Food Housing DWater Health Education Spiritual Economy 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.54 0.8 0 -0.5700000000000001 -0.74 0 -0.5700000000000001 -0.51 0 0.16 0.2 0.2 ForeignInvest NaturalBeauty GhostTeleInfra GhostTranspInfra 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 0 0.2 ForeignInvest GhostEnergy GhostTeleInfra GhostTranspInfra 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 0 0.2 0.2 EconSound Tourism CriticalIndustries FinSys Education Urbanization GhostAgrSysProd 0.38 0.51 0.25 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 -0.64 -0.28 -0.41 -0.84 0 0 0 0.1 0.2 Weapons 0.5 0 0.2 0.2 OppParty 0.5 0 0.2 ParForces 0.8 0 0.2 0.25 NeedsSat 1 0 0 ParForces ResDiff DemFInt OppParty Jobs SocServ HumRights LiberalPrinc GhostPeople Economy 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 0.45 ParForces 0.8 0 0.2 0.2 PropertyR 0.5 0 0.5 HumRights PropertyR PoliceEff RelFundamentalism PropertyDisputes 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 ParForces 0.8 0 0.2 Justice 1 0 0 Authority MilEff LiberalPrinc GhostJustice 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 0 0.2 LiberalPrinc 0.8 0 0.2 LiberalPrinc SocServ 0.25 0.5 0 0 0.2 GovEff MediaFree IntRepr SocServ Expatriates 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 MilEff 0.8 0 0.2 GovLegit 1 0 0 NoCivUnrest PoliceEff ParForces MilEff ResDiff ExtThreat GhostLegitimacy GhostJustice 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 0 -0.61 0 -0.8 0 0 0 0.2 SafeEnv 1 0 0 NoCivUnrest GovEff GhostLegitimacy GhostPeople GhostSecurity Economy 0.44 0.18 0.28 0.8 0.21 0.8 0 -0.5700000000000001 0 0 0 0 0.08 Tourism GhostTranspInfra 0.8 0.8 0 0 0.2 0.6 War 0.8 0 0.2 War 0.8 0 0.2 War 0.8 0 0.2 0.2 0.2 RelFundamentalism 0.8 0 0.2 RelFundamentalism 0.8 0 0.2 0.2 Urbanization AgeTrends 0.8 0.8 0 0 0.2 RelFundamentalism Women Tolerancs Education LiberalPrinc DemoPressures 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 Culture 1 0 0 Governance 16 383 90 411 68 152 622 576 Social services are adequate 31 233 129 287 Liberal democratic principles present 180 11 300 67 Central authority is effective 35 12 123 68 Institutions of governance are effective and fair 16 132 146 188 Government does not control domestic media's reporting of events 330 123 470 198 People perceive that their interests are represented 174 127 306 193 Government has domestic legiticimacy 187 315 293 366 Government has a domestic legitimacy is one of the main outputs of the model. 321 304 456 346 NO WAY TO WEIGHT THE STRENGTH OF THE LINKS -- ALL LINKS ARE NOT EQUAL -- POSSIBLE WORK AROUND WOULD BE TO INCREASE OR DECREASE THE NUMBER OF LINKS TO ADD WEIGHT TO A PARTICULAR NODE 318 13 588 83 Economy 501 271 577 307 75 116 619 563 Financial system is sufficient 4 98 87 150 Efficient markets are in place 132 114 228 174 Commercial sector contributes to national welfare 176 22 292 95 Foreign direct investment is available 363 37 457 96 Foreign Debt is manageable 243 90 335 148 Economy is sound 199 232 288 288 Tourism industry is robust 435 171 519 224 Crtical industries are sound 319 194 411 252 Acceptable jobs are available 210 322 299 378 Populations are free to move 392 265 481 321 Economy is sound is one of the main outputs of the model. 27 284 171 312 Energy 458 195 506 223 86 199 610 550 Coal is available 109 38 185 74 Oil is available 22 85 98 121 Natural gas is available 202 22 296 60 Other fuels are available 282 65 357 115 Electrical energy is available 161 125 258 178 Energy supply and distribution are adequate 141 212 260 273 Energy supply is one of the main outputs of the model. 292 219 449 247 Telecommunications 302 85 414 113 88 88 616 420 Telephone system in place 14 105 106 157 Television system operating 43 32 143 81 Radio system operating 161 21 254 68 Newspapers available 242 62 345 114 Media is functioning 112 104 199 148 Internet connections available 204 126 307 181 Telecomunications infrastructure is in place 86 194 238 244 Transportation infrastructue is one of the main outputs of the model. 285 209 465 237 Agriculture 150 149 222 177 156 56 576 365 Arable land is available 19 73 106 114 Water is available 109 24 187 61 Livestock available 176 72 252 108 Fisheries available 213 133 289 169 Agricultural system is productive 98 194 202 244 Agricultural system is productive is one of the main outputs of the model. 245 198 371 240 Human requirements 470 468 553 513 116 104 595 553 Food is sufficient 42 82 125 134 Housing stock is sufficient 14 196 97 248 Potable water supply is sufficient 311 119 405 178 Access to medicines is adequate 294 32 383 88 Adequate medical infrastructure 192 73 284 131 Adequate medical personnel are available 98 6 205 73 Health requirements are met 157 189 249 247 Education is widely available 320 196 411 253 Spiritual needs are met 290 274 374 327 Immediate needs of the people satisfied 114 314 213 376 Immediate needs of people are satisfied is one of the main outputs of the model. 249 338 396 380 Wild cards 13 187 78 215 154 154 577 541 Expatriates return to country 28 16 125 73 War 101 109 177 145 Human-caused disasters 25 209 133 251 Refugees 160 224 236 260 Genocide 241 176 317 212 Nuclear disaster 149 27 225 63 Epidemic 256 31 332 67 We haven't connected this submodel with the rest of the model yet. 131 287 308 315 Legal system 137 204 190 250 132 204 623 498 Property rights are protected 275 37 365 83 Human rights are protected 38 35 123 85 Government police force is effective against crime 137 28 263 92 Property rights disputes are resolved 333 106 455 157 Administration of justice is effective and fair 142 149 259 211 Administration of justice is effective is one of the main outputs of the model. 291 185 417 227 Security 218 507 281 535 36 117 599 564 Weapons are widely available 257 19 351 78 Paramilitary forces are present 155 64 243 119 Opposition party attempts to dominate by force 305 81 418 152 Competing groups resolve differences 416 202 512 262 Demobilized forces are integrated into society 138 170 246 238 People are tolerant of the status quo 255 231 349 290 Government-run military is effective 8 161 108 224 External threat absent 59 272 140 323 Safe and secure environment is perceived 173 322 281 390 Safe and secure environment is preceived is one of the main outputs of the model. 309 350 497 392 Environment 182 98 256 126 198 56 659 480 Indigenous energy resources are available 6 222 113 289 Indigenous non-energy minerals are available 227 261 331 326 Air is clean 169 84 233 124 Water supplies are clean 24 127 113 183 Landmines are present 312 113 400 168 Land is not polluted 209 132 301 190 Coastal beaches and water clean 29 67 121 125 Natural disasters occur regularly 96 11 192 71 Clean environment present 103 159 194 216 Exploitable natural beauty is present 118 225 214 285 Exploitable natural resources are present 97 296 204 363 Culture 59 109 107 137 132 161 602 494 Population is moving to urban areas 186 22 297 82 Religious fundamentalism is present 18 4 137 69 Women are treated fairly 4 117 93 170 Society is tolerant of minorities 122 77 198 136 Median population age is getting younger 275 77 397 136 Demographic pressures present 188 146 287 200 Culture enhances stability 105 217 201 268 Culture enhances stability is one of the main outputs of the model. 221 233 365 275 Transportation 403 140 497 168 221 207 513 479 Road infrastructure in place 117 110 209 168 Railroad infrastructure in place 4 131 96 189 Airline industry operating 166 43 250 96 Transportation infrastructure is in place 12 4 125 70 Energy supply and distribution are adequate 486 357 590 423 Telecomunications infrastructure is in place 230 239 355 307 Transportation infrastructure is in place 281 165 395 228 Agricultural system is productive 372 253 469 313 Economy is sound 406 365 470 414 Immediate needs of the people satisfied 350 489 447 562 Administration of justice is effective and fair 129 290 247 357 Government has domestic legiticimacy 143 388 247 446 Safe and secure environment is perceived 326 406 439 476 Civil stability and durable peace exists 290 316 398 373 Culture enhances stability 61 246 151 307 The foundations for the model have been developed by Bradd C. Hayes & Jeffrey I. Sands and published in: Bradd C. Hayes & Jeffrey I. Sands, "Doing Windows: Non Traditional Military Responses to Complex Emergencies." DSD Research Report 97-1, Decision Support Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College. Figure 5-1, page 101 13 7 511 87