<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?>
<smile version="1.0" id="VentureEVPISub" numsamples="10000" discsamples="10000">
	<nodes>
		<cpt id="Success">
			<state id="Success" />
			<state id="Failure" />
			<probabilities>0.2 0.8</probabilities>
		</cpt>
		<cpt id="Forecast">
			<state id="Good" />
			<state id="Moderate" />
			<state id="Poor" />
			<parents>Success</parents>
			<probabilities>0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6</probabilities>
		</cpt>
		<decision id="Invest">
			<state id="Invest" />
			<state id="DoNotInvest" />
			<parents>Forecast</parents>
		</decision>
		<utility id="Gain">
			<parents>Invest Success</parents>
			<utilities>10000 -5000 500 500</utilities>
		</utility>
	</nodes>
	<extensions>
		<genie version="1.0" app="GeNIe 2.3.3520.1 1d480d954d39d00" name="Venture EVPI Submodels" faultnameformat="nodestate">
			<comment>This tutorial network demonstrates the use of submodels in GeNIe.\n\nReference:\nBayesFusion, LLC</comment>
			<submodel id="Risks">
				<name>Risks</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="0000bb" width="3" />
				<font color="333399" name="Arial" size="12" />
				<position>171 26 247 62</position>
				<comment>The Risks submodel contains all variables related to risks of the investment in the business venture.</comment>
				<window>143 0 829 430</window>
				<node id="Success">
					<name>Success of the venture</name>
					<interior color="e5f6f7" />
					<outline color="0000bb" />
					<font color="333399" name="Arial" size="12" />
					<position>47 20 177 77</position>
					<comment>This variable describes uncertainty related to the success of a widget manufacturing plant. Quantification of the uncertainty is obtained from market statistics for widget producing ventures. We simplified the variable somewhat by assuming that it can take only two values: success or failure.</comment>
				</node>
				<node id="Forecast">
					<name>Expert forecast</name>
					<interior color="e5f6f7" />
					<outline color="0000bb" />
					<font color="333399" name="Arial" size="12" />
					<position>54 108 171 158</position>
					<comment>The information captured in this variable comes from T.J. Jones Company, Professional Consultants.</comment>
				</node>
				<textbox>
					<caption>The Risks submodel contains all variables related to risks of the investment in the business venture.</caption>
					<font color="333399" name="Arial" size="12" bold="true" />
					<position>237 23 397 118</position>
				</textbox>
				<textbox>
					<caption>Try navigating through the model by right-clicking on the small triangles on the right-hand side of the nodes and choosing a name of the node on the pop-up menu.</caption>
					<font color="333399" name="Arial" size="12" bold="true" />
					<position>26 174 457 231</position>
				</textbox>
			</submodel>
			<node id="Invest">
				<name>Investment decision</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="0000bb" />
				<font color="333399" name="Arial" size="12" />
				<position>20 65 108 108</position>
				<comment>The decision is whether to invest $5,000 in a startup company. The options are to invest or not to invest. In the latter case, the money will be deposited risk-free in a bank.</comment>
			</node>
			<node id="Gain">
				<name>Financial Gain</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="0000bb" />
				<font color="333399" name="Arial" size="12" />
				<position>123 144 232 182</position>
				<comment>This node specifies the total financial gain resulting from the investment decision. Please note that the original investment amount is not included in the gain.</comment>
			</node>
			<textbox>
				<caption>This tutorial network demonstrates the use of submodels in GeNIe.\n\nTry opening the submodel Risks, moving nodes between the main model and the Risks submodel both in the graph view and the tree view.</caption>
				<font color="333399" name="Arial" size="12" bold="true" />
				<position>277 22 551 155</position>
			</textbox>
			<textbox>
				<caption>In submodel, try navigating through the model by right-clicking on the small triangles on the right-hand side of the nodes and choosing a name of the node on the pop-up menu.</caption>
				<font color="333399" name="Arial" size="12" bold="true" />
				<position>22 206 522 263</position>
			</textbox>
			<arcformat parent="Success" child="Forecast" width="1" color="000080" />
			<arcformat parent="Forecast" child="Invest" width="1" color="000080" />
			<arcformat parent="Invest" child="Gain" width="1" color="000080" />
			<arcformat parent="Success" child="Gain" width="1" color="000080" />
		</genie>
	</extensions>
</smile>
