0.2 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.1 Economy Success 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 An expanded Bayesian network, a subset of the Venture influence diagram.\nReference:\nBayesFusion, LLC Success of the venture 73 28 157 79 Expert forecast 164 159 231 209 State of the Economy 284 39 368 90 The expert's forecast is sensitive to the quality of the company but her judgments are also influenced by the overall state of the economy. 312 132 554 227