0.999 0.001 Disease 0.95 0.05 0.02 0.98 This simple network is useful in demonstrating the simplest possible application of Bayes theorem.\nThe thing that surprises most students is that the posterior probability of the disease after observing a positive test result is still very low (around 0.02). Most people expect a high posterior given high sensitivity and specificity of the test.\nReference:\nBayesFusion, LLC Disease 87 28 178 84 Test 87 130 178 186 This simple network is useful in demonstrating the simplest possible application of Bayes theorem.\nThe thing that surprises most students is that the posterior probability of the disease after observing a positive test result is still very low (around 0.02). Most people expect a high posterior given high sensitivity and specificity of the test. 268 22 651 155