0.99 0.01 VisitToAsia 0.99 0.01 0.95 0.05 0.5 0.5 Smoking 0.99 0.01 0.9 0.1 Tuberculosis LungCancer Nothing CancerORTuberculosis CancerORTuberculosis CancerORTuberculosis TbOrCa 0.95 0.05 0.02 0.98 Smoking 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.6 TbOrCa Bronchitis 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.9 This is an example graphical model useful in demonstrating basics concepts of Bayesian networks in diagnosis. This version of the model makes use of GeNIe diagnostic extensions.\nReference:\nThe Asia network first appeared in: Lauritzen, Steffen L. & Spiegelhalter, David J. (1988). Local computations with probabilities on graphical structures and their application to expert systems, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 50(2):157-224. Visit To Asia? 42 28 146 64 The node models whether the individual in question visited Asia recently. This is considered to be a risk factor in tuberculosis. Tuberculosis? 44 120 145 154 Presence or absence of tuberculosis. Smoking? 270 28 350 64 Does the individual smoke or not? This is a serious risk factor in both lung cancer and in bronchitis. Lung Cancer? 200 114 282 161 Does the individual suffer from lung cancer? Tuberculosis or Lung Cancer? 118 197 253 253 Does the individual suffer from either tuberculosis or lung cancer? This node models in practice existence of changes in the lungs, such as presence of a condensed mass. X-Ray Result 45 292 143 328 This node models the X-ray result. Both tuberculosis and lung cancer can be discovered on the X-ray because of presence of condensed mass in the lungs. Bronchitis? 350 119 436 155 Does the individual suffer from bronchitis? Dyspnea? 288 292 364 328 Does the individual suffer from dyspnea (shortness of breath)? Each of the diseases modeled can result in shortness of breath. This is an example graphical model useful in demonstrating basics concepts of Bayesian networks in diagnosis.\n\nIt first appeared in:\nLauritzen, Steffen L. & Spiegelhalter, David J. (1988). Local computations with probabilities on graphical structures and their application to expert systems, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 50(2):157-224.\n\nThis version of the model makes use of GeNIe diagnostic extensions. 482 20 800 286