<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?>
<smile version="1.0" id="Figure12_3" numsamples="10000" discsamples="10000">
	<nodes>
		<cpt id="Market">
			<state id="Up" />
			<state id="Same" />
			<state id="Down" />
			<probabilities>0.5 0.3 0.2</probabilities>
		</cpt>
		<decision id="Consult_Clairvoyant">
			<state id="Consult" />
			<state id="DontConsult" />
		</decision>
		<cpt id="Information">
			<state id="Up" />
			<state id="Same" />
			<state id="Down" />
			<parents>Consult_Clairvoyant Market</parents>
			<probabilities>1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0.33333333 0.33333333 0.33333334 0.33333333 0.33333333 0.33333334 0.33333333 0.33333333 0.33333334</probabilities>
		</cpt>
		<decision id="Investment">
			<state id="HighRiskStock" />
			<state id="LowRiskStock" />
			<state id="SavingsAccount" />
			<parents>Consult_Clairvoyant Information</parents>
		</decision>
		<utility id="Payoff">
			<parents>Investment Market</parents>
			<utilities>1500 100 -1000 1000 200 -100 500 500 500</utilities>
		</utility>
	</nodes>
	<extensions>
		<genie version="1.0" app="GeNIe 2.3.3527.2 1d4866187ddd980" name="Clemen Figure 12.3" faultnameformat="nodestate">
			<comment>Figure 12.3: Investment decision tree with the perfect-information alternative (this influence diagram performs value of information computation equivalent to that of the decision tree in the figure).\nReference:\nRobert T. Clemen, Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis, Second Edition. Duxbury Press, 1996.</comment>
			<node id="Market">
				<name>Market Activity</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="0000bb" />
				<font color="000080" name="Arial" size="10" bold="true" />
				<position>242 62 318 109</position>
			</node>
			<node id="Consult_Clairvoyant">
				<name>Consult Clairvoyant</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="0000bb" />
				<font color="000080" name="Arial" size="10" bold="true" />
				<position>46 22 134 65</position>
			</node>
			<node id="Information">
				<name>Information</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="0000bb" />
				<font color="000080" name="Arial" size="10" bold="true" />
				<position>162 25 261 62</position>
			</node>
			<node id="Investment">
				<name>Investment Decision</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="0000bb" />
				<font color="000080" name="Arial" size="10" bold="true" />
				<position>103 122 184 162</position>
			</node>
			<node id="Payoff">
				<name>Payoff</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="0000bb" />
				<font color="000080" name="Arial" size="10" bold="true" />
				<position>242 124 318 160</position>
			</node>
			<textbox>
				<caption>Figure 12.3: Investment decision tree with the perfect-information alternative (this influence diagram performs value of information computation equivalent to that of the decision tree in the figure).\nRobert T. Clemen, Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis, Second Edition. Duxbury Press, 1996.</caption>
				<font color="000080" name="Arial" size="12" bold="true" />
				<position>18 187 552 282</position>
			</textbox>
			<textbox>
				<caption>This is one way of modeling explicity the decision of whether to buy information. The node Information screens the information about the Market node from the investment decision when no information is bought.</caption>
				<font color="000080" name="Arial" size="12" bold="true" />
				<position>333 20 575 172</position>
			</textbox>
		</genie>
	</extensions>
</smile>
